AN APPLES-TO-APPLES COMPARISON, AT LEAST WHEN COMPARING CARS
When we look at life cycle emissions, it is important to compare cars with similar characteristics. It does not make sense to compare an electric SUV, like Tesla’s Model X, with a much smaller Toyota Yaris with an internal combustion engine. Since an electric SUV requires a larger battery, the amount of raw materials required for its battery production increases, next to the augmented electricity consumption for battery charging, thus likely making it more carbon emitting than a small EV. Hence, one should take the vehicle size into account when comparing BEV with its ICE counterpart; size does matter.
Furthermore, assumptions on the emissions associated to battery production tend to be inaccurate. According to scientists at the Eindhoven University of Technology, these emissions are often much lower than assumed, likely due to the use of approximations and secondary data. In addition, estimates on battery lifespan range from 150.000 kms to 400.000 kms or more – a dramatic difference. However, consensus is generally skewed towards the upper side of the range. Furthermore, in a rapidly evolving industry like battery technologies, one should also take forward-looking data into account. As batteries keep evolving, their range is only expected to increase.
These different estimates and variations can be a breeding ground for misleading articles: Researchers from the Transport & Environment agency identified several publications with misleading comparisons, using outdated data for the EV market and relying on the most recent data for conventional vehicles. In short, data accuracy and transparency remain crucial.
THE BROADER ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT GOES WELL BEYOND CARBON EMISSIONS
Other environmental benefits, such as air pollution, need to be considered too in policy-or purchasing- decisions. By replacing conventional cars with electric ones, harmful ‘nitrogen-oxide’ and ‘particular-matter’ emissions are avoided. According to recent research1 , the latter caused almost 1.5 million deaths worldwide in 2018. But particulate matter is not only linked to exhaust emissions. So-called ‘non-exhaust’ emissions, i.e. particulate matter emitted from tyre wear, brakes, road surfaces and from the resuspension of road dust are getting more attention lately. Emerging evidence shows EVs are estimated to emit 5-19% less ‘larger particular matter’ (PM10) from non-exhaust sources per kilometre than ICEVs, across vehicle classes. However, EVs do not necessarily emit less ‘smaller particular matter’ (PM2.5) than ICEVs. Although lightweight EVs emit an estimated 11-13% less PM2.5 than ICEV equivalents, heavier EVs emit an estimated 3-8% more PM2.5 than ICEVs. The OECD states that consumer preferences for greater autonomy and larger vehicle size could therefore drive an increase in PM2.5 emissions in the future.
LESS DOUBT FOR REGULATORS, CONSENSUS AMONG CAR MAKERS
Luckily, the debate among car makers seems to be over. With an increasing number of EU and UK car manufacturers setting hard targets on the phase-out of conventional cars, it seems like road transportation’s carbon emissions will reduce significantly. But make no mistake, the European shift is mainly driven by the 2020-2021 EU car regulations, which impose heavy fines on missed carbon intensity targets. Transport & Environment expects electric cars to increase from 1.3 million at the end of 2019 to 44 million by 2030 (+3285%), across Europe. This figure is in stark contrast with the EU’s ambition of 30 million EVs by 2030.
