07Total annual greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reached a record high of 53.5 GtCO2e in 2017 and do not seem to peak yet. Moreover, GHG emissions increased by 0.7 GtCO2e compared to 2016. The Paris pledges are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by ca. 6 GtCO2e (from an estimated 59 GtCO2e under current policies to 53 GtCO2e under the Paris Agreement). However, if we want to keep global warming below 2°C or even below 1.5°C, current ambitions need to be tripled to align with a 2°C scenario and quintupled to align with a 1.5°C scenario. Hence, based on current pledges, we face a 2030 emissions gap of respectively 13 or 29 GtCO2e.
Source: UN Environment Programme
08 The main goal of COP24 is to finalize the Paris Rulebook, which sets out the implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement to ensure a just and effective energy transition. However, since current pledges are not sufficient and pose a significant emissions gap, nations will need to commit to review and revise their National Determined Contributions to align them with the required global decarbonisation target which is estimated to keep global warming well below 2°C.
09To meet the Paris pledges, the EU needs to end the use of unabated coal by 2030. This requires major actions for a number of countries such as Poland, the host of COP24, since half of the country’s total energy mix depends on coal. This will undoubtedly impede the COP24 talks, as such a target puts an estimated 100,000 Polish jobs in the coal and energy industry at risk.
Source: Enerdata & Principles for Responsible Investment
10Belgium and France were recently faced with severe riots and strikes due to increased taxes on fossil fuels. Baring this in mind, the climate change transition does not only need to be fast, but also fair and just. COP24 will therefore also focus on the positive and negative implications of the climate transition for workers and communities, and as such, take the social dimension of the transition into account.
Source: Principles for Responsible Investment