COP27: When words speak louder than actions

OUTCOME POST-COP27: NEGATIVE

• We are still not on track for a 1.5°C (or even below 2°C) scenario, quite the opposite in fact. No remarkable updates on NDCs. This was as expected and had already been announced in the run-up to COP27 (note that some nations, like Australia, updated their NDCs in the run-up to COP). During the conference, the EU announced some more bold targets (57% emissions cut by 2030) and Mexico announced an update to its NDC, with financial support from the US. Furthermore, Singapore updated its NDC, and Botswana doubled its NDC target. The graph above clearly shows that, with the NDCs announced prior to COP27, nations were not on track for a 1.5°C scenario. These new announcements will not significantly change this. Note that, for example, the EU’s (equitable share) target requires the continent to reach at least 65% by 2030. Therefore, the new target is still 8% off track! Why do we continue to spot a positive correlation between emissions and climate conferences? Certainly not something to be lauded.
• When India initiated a push for a fossil fuel phase-down pledge, hopes for a general statement were high. With the US, EU and UK on board, the idea gained credibility and traction, but major fossil fuel exporters like Saudi Arabia did not join the efforts. Neither fossil fuel phase-down or phase-out commitments (even when excluding ‘abated’ coal from the commitment), nor commitments on peaking emissions by 2025 reached the final text. These were likely not even considered. Was a new two-week COP required to repeat the COP26 wording “to accelerate measures towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase out and rationalise inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”? There are no new additions to the text, a shame. It’s clear that a true ending of the fossil fuel era is not in sight, although all scientific reports state the urgency of it.
• Linked to the above, here’s a disturbing figure we’d like to share: over 600 fossil fuel industry delegates were present at the COP, an estimated increase of 25% versus COP26. Yet another COP was hijacked. When will the lobbying finally end?
• On a slightly brighter note, the new trilateral alliance between Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo on forest conservation is an important win, although likely more attributable to the return of Lula da Silva as president of Brazil, than the COP itself.